The hidden problem with SMS click data

A significant portion of SMS “clicks” aren’t coming from people.

They are generated automatically, before a recipient ever opens the message.

When a text message containing a link is delivered, smartphones and security systems often scan that URL immediately. Devices, operating systems, and third-party filters fetch the link to generate previews or check for malicious content.

These requests look exactly like real clicks at the infrastructure level.

So for years, they have been counted as clicks.

The result is inflated click-through rates across the entire industry.

Why this went unnoticed?

On the surface, everything looked normal.

These automated clicks behave like real ones. They hit the same URLs, come from legitimate devices, and do not trigger obvious anomalies unless you are specifically looking for them.

But there are patterns.

The first is timing. Automated clicks tend to happen almost instantly, often within seconds of message delivery. At scale, if a large percentage of clicks come in immediately after send, they are unlikely to be human.

The second is impact. If click-through rate changes significantly but conversions, revenue, or downstream actions stay the same, the clicks that moved were not driving real outcomes.

In other words, the metric was moving, but the ROI was not.

We’ve seen this before

This is not the first time a marketing channel has had to rethink a core metric.

Email went through the same shift when Apple introduced Mail Privacy Protection. Opens were automatically triggered before users actually engaged, inflating open rates across the industry.

The pattern was almost identical:

• Reported engagement increased
• Conversions stayed flat
• Revenue did not change

Eventually, the industry adjusted. Open rates became directional. Clicks and conversions became the metrics that mattered.

SMS is now at a similar inflection point.

What this means for SMS marketers

As platforms begin filtering out automated traffic, reported click-through rates will likely decrease.

That does not mean performance is getting worse.

It means measurement is getting more accurate.

This shift has a few important implications:

CTR is no longer a standalone performance metric
It is useful context, but on its own, it does not tell you whether a campaign is driving real outcomes.

Revenue and conversions matter more
If your SMS campaigns are generating ticket sales, that is the signal to optimize for, not just clicks.

Not all CTRs are comparable
A 20 percent CTR on one platform may include automated traffic. A 4 percent CTR on another may reflect only real human engagement. Without understanding how clicks are defined, comparisons can be misleading.

How Hive is handling it

At Hive, we started investigating, testing and working with industry experts to try and solve for this.

"When a message is delivered and a link preview is generated, the device makes a real HTTP request to that URL. Without filtering, that request is indistinguishable from a human click. Most platforms, and the third-party infrastructure many rely on, have historically treated it as one."
— Prateek Madhikar, Staff Software Engineer, Hive

As we improved our tracking infrastructure, we were able to measure click-through rate more accurately. At first glance, it looked like performance had declined.

But when we looked deeper, the story did not hold up.

Revenue from SMS campaigns remained steady. Attribution did not change. Conversions were consistent.

That told us something important. The clicks that disappeared were not real engagement to begin with.

They were automated.

Once we filtered out preview traffic and bot activity, what remained was a much lower but much more accurate click-through rate.

What we’re doing differently

What you see in Hive today is the true click-through rate. It reflects real human engagement and filters out automated preview traffic.

We are also working toward showing both, just like we do for email:

• A true CTR based on human engagement
• An industry comparable CTR that includes automated traffic

This gives event marketers the best of both worlds. You get accurate performance measurement and the ability to benchmark across platforms.

Where the industry is heading

The shift toward more accurate SMS measurement is already underway, and the industry is starting to take notice.

As privacy features evolve and platforms improve their tracking, the old way of counting clicks is becoming less reliable.

The platforms that adapt by prioritizing accuracy over inflated metrics will be the ones marketers trust long term.

For marketers, the takeaway is simple.

The goal is not higher click-through rates.

It is real engagement that drives real results.